Assessment of export instability and forecasting of export of total pulses in India Garde YA1,*, Mohanan N1, Thorat VS2, Pisal RR3, Varshney Nitin1, Shrivastava Alok1 1Department of Agricultural Statistics, N.M. College of Agriculture, Navsari Agricultural University, Navsari-396 450 (Gujarat), India 2Department of Agribusiness Economics and Finance, ASPEE Agribusiness Management Institute, Navsari Agricultural University, Navsari-396 450 (Gujarat), India 3Department of Agronomy, College of Agriculture, Navsari Agricultural University, Waghai, The Dangs-394 730 (Gujarat), India *YA Garde (Corresponding author) y.garde@nau.in
Online Published on 18 March, 2023. Abstract Pulses are among the most extensively used foods in the world. They, provide protein and fibre and, are a great source of vitamins and minerals such as iron, zinc and magnesium. The demand for pulses is growing annually and the requirement is not meeting with increasing rate of production. Therefore, forecasting of price and export are used to provide assistance in decision making and planning the future more effectively and efficiently. In the present study, secondary data of area, production and productivity of total pulses were collected from different published reports and websites of Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare and Economic survey 2020-21. While for price and export data of pulses were collected from AGMARKNET (www.agmarknet.gov.in) and APEDA (www.apeda.gov.in), respectively. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and instability index were work out. The study showed that area, production and productivity have positive growth rate with CGAR of 0.12, 0.56 and 0.45, respectively. Further, study found that Coppock’s instability index and Cuddy and Della instability index was 50.22% and 48.28% for export in quantity, respectively, and also 44.28% and 34.35% for export in value, respectively. The ARIMA technique was employed for export forecasting of pulses. It was found that ARIMA (8,2,1) and ARIMA (4,1,1) model act as good models for forecasting export in quantity and value of pulses, respectively. Top Keywords ARIMA, CGAR, Export of pulses, Forecast, Instability index. Top |