Study of Potential Risk of Dengue Outbreak Using Spatial Modeling Based on Socioeconomic Parameters Chopda Sneha1, Das Sandipan2, Chaudhary Navendu3, Singh T. P.4 1Symbiosis Institute of Geo-informatics, Symbiosis International University, Pune-411016, India 2Assistant Professor, Symbiosis Institute of Geo-informatics, Symbiosis International University Pune, India 3Associate Professor, Symbiosis Institute of Geo-informatics, Symbiosis International University Pune, India 4Professor & Director, Symbiosis Institute of Geo-informatics, Symbiosis International University Pune, India Online published on 29 December, 2017. Abstract Dengue is the most important vector borne virus disease in the world with 50–100 million cases reported globally every year. Rapid urbanization, increasing population movement and lifestyles that contribute to the proliferation of man-made larval habitats of the mosquito are the exacerbated factors for the increasing number of the dengue incidences. The aim of this study was to model areas with humans at risk of dengue prevalence using multicriteria modeling depending on the spatial relationship between dengue fever cases and different socioeconomic parameters for the year 2012. The risk map of dengue incidences were classified as high, medium and low social risks. The developed dengue risk map was then verified by using reported cases in the year 2012 obtained from the municipality health department and it was found that more than ninety percent of the case samples were in the “medium” and “high” categories where most of the victims were found to have lived in the urban and sub-urban areas of the municipality. We have applied spatial statistics method Moran's I and kernel density estimation together with spatial analysis in the GIS environment to examine spatial clusters in order to identify and visualize areas giving different hotspot regions of the studied area. The output of the results indicated that the dengue cases were clustered (p<0.01) when analyzed using Moran's I with Z score 3.10. Descriptive statistical analysis was used to characterize dengue fever (DF) victims and it was observed that DF was more prevalent in adults between the age group from 15 to 55 accounting for approximately 82% of all the reported cases in 2012. Entomology index measured high with higher dengue incidence in humans; hence it is a robust measure of entomological risk for transmission of dengue virus. This study would be useful for decision makers to strategize and create preventive action plans to control the dengue transmission effectively. Top Keywords Dengue, Disease Mapping, Geographic Information System (GIS), Hot Spot Analysis, Public Health, etc. Top |