Advances in Life Sciences
Year : 2016, Volume : 5, Issue : 10
First page : ( 4191) Last page : ( 4200)
Print ISSN : 2278-3849. Online ISSN : 2278-4705.

Production Performance of Chilli in India-A Statistical Approach

Padmanaban K*, Sahu P K, Narsimhaiah Lakshmi

Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Nadia, Mohanpur-741252, West Bengal

*Email: padmanaban.agri@gmail.com

Online published on 23 December, 2016.

Abstract

Chilli is one of the important spice crop in India and it plays vital role in the Indian spices export. In this work production performance of chilli are analysed for major state wise and whole India time series data periodfrom 1970 to 2012. The major chilli producing states like Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Odissa and Tamil Nadu are included in analysis. The statistical techniques like trend analysis, Hazel's decomposition analysis and ARIMA model are used to analyse the data and also forecasted up to the year 2020 by best fitted ARIMA model. Variance decomposition analysis suggests that the states of Andhra Pradesh and India coefficient of variation in production significantly contributed by the change in yield variance and least contributed the change in area. In case of Karnataka least significant variation in production contributed by the interaction between change in mean area and change in mean yield and highvariation by interaction between change in mean yield and area variance. The states like Odissa and Tamil Nadu significantly by change in area variance and least by change in mean yield. Forecasting models suggest that the states of Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu showed decreased value in case of production compare to the base year, remaining states and India showed increased production value compare to the base year 2012.

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Keywords

Trend analysis, Hazell's decomposition analysis, ARIMA, forecasting.

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