A Study of Compound Growth Rates, Instability Indices and Trends in Area, Production and Productivity of Rice and Maize Crops in Middle Gujarat Zone Lyadav R, Kalola A D* Department of Agricultural Statistics, B. A. College of Agriculture, Anand Agricultural University, Anand-388110, Gujarat *email: adkalola@aau.in
Online published on 23 December, 2016. Abstract The present study was undertaking to design a methodology to fit the trends in area, production and productivity of rice and maize crops in middle Gujarat zone. The compound growth rates, instability indices and shift in area during last five, five year plan periods also worked out in the study. Various linear, non-linear and time series models were fitted to identify the appropriate trend equations, and to arrive at a methodology that can precisely estimate the trends, compound growth rates andinstability indices of area, production and productivity of rice and maize crops in middle Gujarat zone. For a period of 53 years, timeseries data from 1960–61 to 2012–13 on area, production and productivity of rice and maize crops for middle Gujarat zone were collected from Directorate of Agriculture, Gujarat state, Gandhinagar. In case of polynomial models linear and in case of ARIM Amodels, ARIMA (3, 1, 0) was evolved as the best fitted trend functions for productivity trends of rice crop. None of the model were found fitted for the trends in production in rice crop. Trends of area, production and productivity of maize crop were found not fitted as none of the polynomial as well as time series model was evolved as best fitted model. The production of rice had annual growth rate of 7.89% due to combined effects of increment in area by 2.33% and improvement in productivity by 6.65% annually. Production of maize crop had 4.95% annual growth rate due to combined effect of increment in sowing area (3.75%) and increment in productivity (1.86%) per annum. Top Keywords ARIMA, Polynomial models, compound growth rates, instability indices, Trends. Top |