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Indian Journal of Agricultural Marketing
Year : 2022, Volume : 36, Issue : 1spl
First page : ( 168) Last page : ( 168)
Print ISSN : 0971-8664. Online ISSN : 2456-8716.

Forecasting and unit value realization of shrimp exports from India

Sirisha K J V K1, Rao D V Subba1

National Institute of Agriculture Extension Management, Hyderabad

1Departments of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural College, Bapatla, A.P.

Online Published on 16 April, 2022.

Abstract

The present study was to know the unit value realization and future values of shrimp exports from India. The future trend was predicted for up to 2024–25 by employing the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique. Stationary of shrimp exports data was tested by Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. Maximum R-Square, minimum Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were used as criteria to select the best model for price forecasting. Based on the above criteria the model (0,1,1) was found to fit the time series to predict future trend. The average unit price for shrimp in USA market was higher than Japan, South East Asia, EU markets and Middle East. China market recorded the lowest unit price than other markets.

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Keywords

ARIMA, Unit value realization and Shrimp.

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